- The Effective Week
- Posts
- The Effective Growth Curve
Thanks again to everyone who’s referred someone to this newsletter. You’ll find your personal link and referral rewards at the bottom of every email. Give it a try!
Now onto today’s topic, one I’ve had to re-learn more times than I’d like to admit. Growth doesn’t always feel like progress. I read this everywhere and yet when it shows up in the form of confusion, doubt, or the urge to quit...it feels weird. The thing is that if we can push through that messy middle, the destination is usually worth it. Easier said than done, of course. So below, I’ll break down the theory and share a bit of what it’s looked like in my own journey.
Tip of the Week: Growth is not linear. It often looks like a setback before it becomes a step forward. The dip is where growth gets real.
THE THEORY
The "Valley of Despair" Is a Feature, Not a Bug. The “Valley of Despair” is part of the Dunning-Kruger effect curve. When we start a new challenge, we usually start off with confidence simply because we don’t yet realize what we don’t know. But once reality sets in, our confidence plummets... and that’s where many give up. It’s also where real growth begins. Competence starts when the illusion of competence breaks.
From Unknown-Unknowns to Known-Unknowns. One of the most powerful shifts in learning is moving something from “I didn’t even know I didn’t know this” to “I know what I need to learn.” As Donald Rumsfeld’s (US Secretary of Defense) framework suggests, growth accelerates when we make the invisible visible. Turning unknown-unknowns into known-unknowns gives us something to work with. It will feel like we are moving in the wrong direction, but we really are gaining conscience of how long the ride will be.
Seth Godin says not all dips are worth pushing through, and that’s the hard part. In The Dip, he explains that every challenging task includes a natural drop in motivation and results. Some dips are worth enduring because they lead to our desired outcomes. Others are dead ends in disguise. The real challenge is telling them apart.
MY PERSONAL THOUGHTS
To be honest, it’s hard to tell the difference between a dip worth pushing through and one that’s signaling it’s time to quit. In theory, the models are clean. In practice, they’re messy. You can have all the frameworks above in your head and still find yourself wondering: Is this the struggle before the breakthrough, or the universe telling me to let go?
Here’s the best filter I’ve found: if it still matters on a clear day (not just in the fog of exhaustion or frustration) then it’s probably a dip. If the only reason you’re still holding on is guilt, pride, or momentum, then maybe it’s time to let go. I’ve come to believe that real growth isn’t just about "pushing through," sometimes we need to stop and question if the juice is worth the squeeze. The dip isn’t just a test of grit, it’s actually a test of alignment. If your “why” still holds up in the hard moments, it’s worth pushing through.
HOW TO PUT THIS INTO PRACTICE
Run the “Still Worth It?” Test: Ask yourself: “If this were easy today, would I still want it?” If yes - keep going. If no - consider quitting.
Map Your Dip: Draw the curve: Where did it feel easy? When did it start to feel hard? Label where you are now, just acknowledging that you are in "The Valley of Despair" can make all the difference.
Name 3 Unknowns: Write down three things that confuse or overwhelm you right now. Then next to each, add: “How could I learn this? or who can help me with this?”
Turn Insight into Action: For every insight, commit to one action. Insight without movement is procrastination in disguise.
Make a Recovery Routine: When you're in the dip, you don’t need a new strategy, you need rest and rhythm. Pick one habit that grounds you (walks, journaling, morning silence) and do it. Sometimes the way out of the dip comes from a clear mind.
Reply